Outcome Copenhagen; Summit or Downfall?

The long awaited United Nations Climate Change Conference did not lead to any binding agreements.

After two weeks of negotiating it ended in a political accord which does not force any country to reduce emissions and has no legal standing.

The reports later indicated, the U.S. and China are often pointed out as the responsible parties for the lack of progress. Obama had made promises on the issue of climate protection, but has yet to deliver results. This shows the overwhelming influence that U.S. domestic politics has on the planet, as the rest of the world waits for the nation to confirm its promise to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The disappointment was felt mostly in Europe, where there is a general consensus on the necessity for action.

The Copenhagen Accord in short:

- Agreement not to let human induced climate change cause warming beyond 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures;

- No legally-binding emission reductions for developed countries; countries are to submit their reduction pledges before 31 January 2010;

- No quantified emission reduction objectives by developing countries, only measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) reported to the Convention;

- US$30 billion of short-term finance, balanced between climate change adaptation and emissions mitigation, has been committed for the period 2010-2012 by developed country governments;

- Long-term finance of a further US$100 billion a year by 2020 will be mobilised from a variety of sources; and

- Four new bodies: a mechanism on REDD-plus, a High-Level Panel under the COP to study the implementation of financing provisions, the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund and a Technology Mechanism.

- Read the full accord at:
http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_15/application/pdf/cop15_cph_auv.pdf

The Accord is only the beginning of the next phase in international climate negotiations, and over the course of the next year the real challenge will be for Parties to maintain the political momentum as reflected in the Copenhagen Accord and turn its political intentions into legally binding agreements. Based on positions of Parties during COP15 it appears likely that any legally binding agreement will continue on a two track basis - under both the Kyoto Protocol, which at this stage appears likely to be extended into a second commitment period for developed country targets after 2012, and under a new protocol to the UNFCCC to give legal effect to commitments by developing countries (and the United States as a non-Kyoto Party).

The next COP is scheduled for November 2010 in Mexico. Negotiators are hoping to nail down then what they failed to achieve here in Copenhagen: a new treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol. Pressure from the private sector to provide clear rules will increase this year as the deadline of 2012 is coming nearer.