Single EU-wide emissions cap for post-2012

Brussels, 13 July: The third phase of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) could see a single cap on carbon dioxide emissions set for all Europe, rather than 27 country-by-country targets. This is one of many ideas under review for Phase III of the scheme, which begins in 2013, according to Peter Zapfel, EU ETS co-ordinator at the European Commission. The Commission's policy paper on the scheme beyond 2013 will be published in the next few weeks; it has no relevance for to the second phase of the EU ETS, which runs from 2008-2012.
"Harmonised allocation has been mentioned a lot in the debate," said Zapfel. The 'burden sharing agreement' – by which the EU accepted a single Kyoto Protocol target, to which member states made differing contributions – only lasts up to 2012. Beyond that date, there is more freedom for harmonisation of allocation plans, he said (Source: Environmental Finance).

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Fortis: NAP 2 wrangling begins

The price volatility in the CO2 market between late April and mid-May induced record trading volumes in May of almost 90Mt in the exchanges and OTC markets combined, according to PointCarbon, 7Mt up on the figures for April. Prices gyrated between a low of € 8.50/t and a peak of € 21.50/t for the Dec 2006 contract and the market briefly threatened meltdown. But lessons can be learned from the experimental NAP 1 phase. The EC now needs to encourage a more accurate set of emissions targets for NAP 2, although early indications are that some of the biggest emitters for example Germany will try to push through even greater allocations for NAP 2. Poland too is seeking an additional 20 Mt over its NAP 1 allocations. This could be a tough internal battle within the EC, and meanwhile the ETS market is left looking for direction [ see Fortis Energy Monthly June 2006]

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New set-up of on-line CER auction starts after Summer

The sixth on-line CER auction via Climex will be held after Summer 2006 along a modified set-up. To speed-up the process New Values will liaise with buyers and sellers will seek the projects itself. It will use listing agents to conduct a standardised due diligence on them ahead of the auctions. Buyers and sellers will sign up to the same rules and regulations a term sheet will be created, “to make it clear what is fixed before the auction,” New Values' Sacha Bloemhoff said. Another new point is that sellers guarantee a 10-day period of exclusivity before the auctions to make sure a project is not pulled out after announcing the auction.

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CO2-market remains attentive; post 2008 price remains at € 20 level

It seems that market participants didn't come to rest after last Month's price corrections. There is no interest in taking clear positions yet. Trade volumes are low, around 1Mton a day. And the sudden Summer temperatures and the World Championship gets all the attention. The next compliance moment is far away, April 2007. It appears that companies witness theitr own higher emission levels and realize that they better stick to their surplusses. Companies that sold their EUAs in April to banks and power companies are satisfied with their profits.

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Sendeco2 builds Portuguese and Italian trading window for Climex Alliance

Sendeco2 announced today that it is preparing the launch of a Portuguese CO2 exchange in September; and also an Italian platform before the end of the year. Sendeco2 is part of the Climex Alliance, and has generated trades totaling just over 300,000 allowances since trading started in Spain in February.
“It is of utmost importance to convey to the Portuguese market the efficiency and transparency created by a CO2 exchange, reducing commissions and intermediation costs as much as possible, so that the operators can apply these benefits in modernizing its industrial units,” Managing Director Eduardo Marcos said in a press release today.

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Traders prefer fixed CER price

According to the Pointcarbon's JI/CDM Monitor of June 13, indexing the CER price to the EUA price is still perceived as somewhat risky. It seems sellers are choosing to go with fixed price contracts instead. Furthermore, China, where the prices seem to be lower than in for example India or some South American countries, continues to be buyers’ preferred country for CDM investments.

Uncertainties
One unclear element seems to be whether Canada will buy CERs. Another uncertainty surrounds the development of Green Investment Schemes and AAUs. So far any talk of concrete governmental plans for purchasing AAUs has been vague although the EC requested EU member states to inform about such initiatives in their phase 2 NAPs.

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Commission: 'shaky EU ETS start'

“The start of the EU ETS was a bit shaky, but this was not a surprise to us,” said Jos Delbeke, director of air and chemicals at the European Commission´s DG Environment. “The market based instruments did work.” While speaking to the delegates of the annual Eurelectric event inOslo, Delbeke said that what happened around 15 May was to be expected as companies had been overly pessimistic about their emissions. “When the first year of compliance came to an end, we observed that the market reacted, and that the traded volumes have been increasing,” Delbeke said. “The market based instruments worked, roughly, but they did.” He also stressed that compared with the “very imperfect data” from before; the first ever real emission database was now in place after the first compliance period [source: Montel Powernews].

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CDM credits pass 1 billion ton CO2e

(Bonn, 9 June 2006)According to the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat, the Kyoto Protocol’s clean development mechanism (CDM) is as of today estimated to generate more than one billion tonnes of CERS (emission reductions) by the end of 2012. “We have crossed an important threshold with these emission reductions”, said Richard Kinley, acting head of the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat. “It is now evident that the Kyoto Protocol is making a significant contribution towards sustainable development in developing countries”.
More than 800 projects are presently in the pipeline, of which 210 are registered and another 58 are requesting registration. Last year, only around 140 activities were registered or being considered for registration. CERs can be used by companies to offset part of their CO2 emissions under the EU ETS, replacing or adding EUAs. Climex will announce soon its sixth on-line CER auction.

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EU High Level Group advises on EU ETS

The High Level Group (HLG), installed by the European Commission, consists of Commissioners for Enterprise and Industry, Competition, Energy and the Environment, Ministers, Members of the European Parliament, industry, environmental NGOs, consumers, trade unions and regulators. The HLG will function as an advisory platform bringing together the Members of the Commission for Enterprise and Industry, Competition, Energy, and the Environment as well as all relevant stakeholders. The HLG has published its first report, June 2nd. To deal with problems like windfall profits, competition distortion, energy dependency, high E prices, they suggest to strengthen the EU ETS, in the following way:

Short term (within 2 weeks! NAP-2):
- make the current inactive mass of companies more familiar with CO2 trade;
- harmonise the NAPs in the assessment phase via consultation regarding: site closure/transfer of EUAs;
- use different allocation for different sectors; allow compensation of windfall profits, within State Aid Rules;
- use auction, is allowed up to 10% and small sites;
- improve the institutional arrangements (registries to facilitate transfer)
- maximise the use of JI and CDM (linked with the foregoing): no quantitative caps, and linkup with ITL from Kyoto Protocol): EU should consider a contingency plan, when ITL is not operational mid 2007.
further:

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Next Allocation Plans not clear on shortage

Recent Drafts of the Second Allocation plans up for consultation don't show a large ambition and are not a clear shortage signal yet. In the chart below NAP-1 (1) and draft NAP-2 (2) are shown of 16 Member States. Some Second NAPs contain more allowances, but also more sites. Some NAPs are more generous, other NAPs are more stringent. We have to wait for more concrete numbers, but we must realize that again, the European Commission will have to play the 'bad guy' and to lift possible over allocation. They will be even more attentive than before, since the 2005 emission numbers showed a surplus.

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Is aviation ready for cap-and-trade?

The European Parliament Environment Committee voted May 31 for a specific cap-and-trade systrem for the aviation sector. It should not be included into the EU ETS yet, since aviation emissions are not covered under Kyoto yet; the ETS emissions are. It would cover all flights to and from any EU airport. The draft resolution suggests a pilot phase for the 2008-2012 period, and a cap on how many EUAs can be brought into the aviation emissions trading scheme. The same should apply to CERs and ERUs. This would increase the burden that airlines would have to bear in reducing emissions, either through better practice or technological advance. The European Commission is expected to put forward a formal proposal to include aviation in the EU ETS by the end of the year. The aviation industry is divided over the issue, with Lufthansa and many of the low-cost airlines protesting that it would cost to much, while other flag-carriers, including British Airways, are cautiously in favour of the inclusion in the EU ETS.

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CO2 price shows that industry brings surplus EAUs to the market

CO2 prices fell to their lowest in 12 days, as German power declined and summer U.K. natural gas lost ground. Permits for Dec. 2006 fell as much as 1.20 euros, or 6.8 percent, from yesterday's close to 16.50 euros . That's their lowest since May 19. Permits for December 2008 fell 70 cents to 22.5 euros. Traders believe that there is an increase in industrial selling, suggesting that more supply is being sold in volume. Hence, also more spot contracts are offered. Volumes are limited, between 1 and 2 Mton a Day.
The large price volatility is a concern for many. Reason is that on one hand the market is looking for stability, but gets mixed signals regarding future allocation. And, besides, Poland still needs to report their surplus in 2005, which can be large. On the other hand is the liquidity still limited and the price gets moved by each large transaction. It will take a while before the market reaches more stability.

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UN conference agrees agenda for negotiations for post 2012 CO2 Market

A first round of UN climate negotiations for the period following the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol has successfully concluded in Bonn, Germany. “We have set an ambitious agenda which focuses on a sound process leading towards science-based emission reduction targets on the part of industrialized countries within the next few years” said Michael Zammit Cutajar, Chair of the “Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Industrialised Couuntry Parties under the Kyoto Protocol”. “There is a strong sense of urgency and there’s clear consensus that there should be no gap after 2012, when the first commitment period ends”, he added (see here). The next rounds of negotiations under Kyoto Protocol and talks under the Convention will take place at a United Nations Climate Change Conference from 6 to 17 November in Nairobi, Kenya (see WWF: 'Kyoto negotiations, inch ahead'). The text contains a list from the Chair with possible approaches for future commitments. Without any having made any step closer, the parties leave the door still open for the US to return and the developing countries to voluntarily participate in CO2 action. See here for further reports.

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Dutch Allocation plans not seen as too stringent by the market

Unexpectly, CO2 prices for 2006/2007 futures contract are inceasing fast in the direction of pre verification levels (see snapshot). While the 2005 surplus is 60Mton, the overall shortage for the period up to 2007 will be in our view be at least 60Mt. Hence, we witnessed a cold and long winter and slowly growing economies. This prognosis, plus the fact that supply of the 2005 surplus allowances seems lagging, is putting pressure again on the current prices.
The spread between 2008 futures contracts and that for 2007 is decreasing slightly, but still obvious. The first more concrete Second Allocation Plan published yesterday, the Dutch, does not create a clear picture though on the shortage situation of Netherlands' companies. The Draft Plan suggests an allocation of 92,7Mton contains much more installations (500; 200 before) new sectors; so until the draft numbers for individual installations will be published - within a few weeks - the overall picture remains unclear. The market for post 2007 futures didn't show higher price levels either.

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Carbon price is recovering and the market is growing up

The 2006 futures and spot contract prices are recovering slowly from € 10 to € 16. It seems clear that the forward curve for future allowances is here to stay; their prices level is above € 22 now.
We have been updating surplus numbers whole day yesterday. Getting market relevant information is one thing, getting the numbers transparent and verified appeared to be a challenge in the young carbon market. And even now, we are not sure how deep the Polish 2005 emission reports will increase surplus numbers and impact the price. The recoverage of the price means allowances have kept their value and that companies realize that 2006 and 2007 can curb the surplus numbers into shortage, with a few percent extra economic growth. Therefore, it is no surpsrise that the volume is large: 5 Mton for half a day, driven by compliance buyers as well as financials.
Last week experts at the Carbon Expo concluded the emissions trading market is already a mature market, despit the prive volatility: see press release.
More detailed analysis of the emission reports show a very diversive picture. Some companies are long: Corus in the Netherlands was 4Mton long, Essent 1,5 Mton long; while Nuon was 4 Mton short. Fuel switch played a role, as well as circumstances in specific sectors.

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Emissions performance figures show 4% surplus of allowances in 2005 (update)

The European Commission's publication of the emission performance figures of companies that participate in the ETS show that there was an allowance surplus in 2005 of at least 63Mt (see press release). That is 4 % less than the 2.1 billion allocated. A handfull of countries had a shortage. The largest in the UK, 36,4 Mt, followed by Spain with 9,2Mt. The largest surplus was in Germany, 21 Mt, followed by France 19,1Mton, Czech Rep, 15,8 Mton. We are still waiting for some final data, including Poland. That means that the projected shortage of 180 Mton max has shrunken more than 66% to 60 Mton max. That is, if we isolate the 2005 performance from the next 2 years. Hence, for a large part the lagging economic growth has caused this surplus. We expect that the reserves for new entrants have not been fully used. We must keep in mind that the current economic rise can speed up emissions fast. Moreover, in some member states there were large unexpected shutdowns. And, yes, there were more energy management investments than anticipated due to Kyoto and the high oil prices (Imtech 2005 report).
For the Second Allocation Plan, it is crucial to get the reference emissions data more robust and to use conservative growth numbers, because it is said that there was a lot of 'gaming' amongst companies. The Second Allocation Plan is due June 30th.

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EU 'needs to report carbon emissions quarterly'

"Companies in the European Union's greenhouse gas trading scheme must prepare to report their carbon emissions quarterly if the scheme is to work properly, according to the World Bank. Karen Capoor, author of a World Bank report into the state of the carbon market, told a conference in Germany yesterday that quarterly estimates of emissions were needed to give the market transparency and avoid situations that led to the collapse of the carbon price on the EU market late last month, See: Financial Times, May 11, 2006, By Fiona Harvey in London.

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Mandatory caps triple Carbon Market: 14% of total demand

Since the EU has implemented mandatory emissions caps in 2005 for companies, the amount of reduction projects in preparation has tripled compared to 2004 to 368 Mton in CDM/JI projects The first quarter seem to bring 2006 at the same levels. The value has grown five times for CDM/JI to $ 2,5 billion.
The New EU Allowances Market was in 2005 300 Mton . For EU Allowances the future value seems to triple in 2006 to 1 billion ton with a value of $ 24 billion. This can be drawn from the Carbon Market Trends 2006 report, published by the Worldbank at the Carbon Expo.
Based on the total Kyoto demand of OECD countries, when each purchases 50% of its commitment on the carbon market, the demand for CDM/JI credits will be 2.5 billion ton.. This means that only 14% is in the pipeline. CDM/JI supply needs to grow 10% anually the next 7 years.
The anticipated shortage of EU allowances in 2005-2007is not clear yet. At least for 2005, this will be published by the European Commission, May 15th. An even higher CDM/JI growth is needed to limit prices in the EU market.
Whether CDM/JI project supply wil increase to meet global demand will depend on 1) speeding up of the CDM/JI process, 2) the upcomoing climate negotiation, for long term signals, 3) the anticipated EU allocation for 2008-2012. The administrative condition, the linkage of regristries and logs, seem to be met beginning 2008 ultimately, the European Commission said at the Carbon Expo.

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Climex Alliance spot trade offered good compliance windows

As the Climex Alliance trade statistics show, April was the month with the most EUA spot activity, with 0,4 Mton, of which half of it in the last week before the surrender date, April 30th. The majority of the transfers were done through OTC spot deals. In total February through April 0,9 Mton was traded via Climex. Knowing that the Spanish window, Sendeco2 and the Eastern window EUETS.com, from Vertis Finance were recently connected with the local Emissions Registries, needed for spot transactions, the Climex Alliance perspectives look promising. Another succesfull Climex tool are the on-line CER auctions, organised with Asia Carbon. At the 5th Auction on 21st April 130,000 CERs were sold (see here). Both partners will present the auction results at the upcoming Carbon Expo on May 12th, 11-13)

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Limited '05 CO2 emission figures make '08 CO2 allowance price rise

The CO2 price for spot contracts and futures for 2006 and 2007 appear to stabilize from the current level of €12 upto €15; a price traders feel compliance buyers will accept. The spot price has dropped less and the spot-futures spread is €0,40. As expected, the limited 2005 emission reports (see below) have led to a rise of the 2008 futures price, €21, with a potential to grow to €23 . This is€7,50 above 2006 futures price; the highest spread ever! Hence, when the first allocation period will prove to be over-allocated (the Commission's report is due May 15), the chance is higher that governments will strengthen the second allocation period. This expectation finally creates a forward CO2 price curve (see snapshot). Part of this expectation is speculative, because the CER/ERU supply can subdue further price increases.

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CO2 price trend remains downwards with more 'long' numbers

The significant downward correction in the price of carbon continues. We have now reports about long positions in the Netherlands (6Mt), France (19Mt), Czech Republic (14Mt), Lithuania (5,7Mt), Wallonia (4Mt), Estonia (4Mt), Sweden (2,5 Mt), Slovenia (0,4Mt) A chance for buyers to lower their opening bids. Even with the expected shortfall in Spain of 10Mt, the EU shortage decreased with these few reports already with 30% to 110-130 Mton.

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'UK power companies cash £ m 850 CO2 profits annually'

This is one of the conclusions of IPA Energy Consulting in their report for the British Department for Trade and Industry. After similar reports in Germany and The Netherlands. government are ready to tackle such profits. The IPA report may fuel such concerns in the UK. It confirms that a combination of free allocation to power stations and full pass-through of marginal costs to consumers has led to a large increase in the electricity industry's profitability. Peter Bedson, a director at IPA Energy Consulting, said the main winners of the system would be gas and nuclear companies as they produce the lowest levels. Conservative environment spokesman Peter Ainsworth said: "The problem will not be sorted out until the market is made to work properly by forcing firms to bid for their permits instead of being allowed to lobby Government for them free of charge."

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Sendeco2 deal shows benefit local windows Climex Aliance

The Association of Iron and Steel Companies, UNESID and SENDECO2 have signed an Agreement to facilitate and guarantee, to more than 50 companies of the iron and steel sector, access to the Climex trading platform through Sendecos2 window. Technical Director of UNESID, Mr. Santiago Oliver:"given the complications that this market has, this is an advantage to be able to offer to our members a preferred access to SENDECO2, which is an outstanding Exchange thanks to the multiple alliances that SENDECO2 is creating and thanks to the cultural and physical proximity to us. SENDECO2 is an easy way to access to the required allowances."

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First sketches of Dutch Allocation announced

The hall of the Omniversum Theater in The Hague was packed again on Tuesday April 25th as hundreds of representatives from companies that fall under the ETS, brokers, consultants, accountants, lawyers and NGOs heared Paul van Slobbe, Chairman of the Allocation Group announce the first sketches of NAP-2. Many were be relaxed, because one of the base-years for the allocation will be 2005. And the National Emissions Authority reported last week that the companies that fall under the EU ETS appeared 6Mton long over 2005 emissions, when they sent in their verification report. It was alawys expected that the Dutch allocation was relatively generous - compared with companies in other member states - because many had already invested in energy savings under the Benchmarking Convenant. Companies that did not meet the Convenant were allocated 15% less. But that the participants werealmost 7,7 % overallocated , namely 80,4 Mton of the 86,5 Mton allocation seems due to the lagging economic growth in the Netherlands and some temporary shutdowns.

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Prices continue to climb in ACX-Climex CER auctions

A total of 350.000 tonnes of forward CERs were on offer of 3 CDM projects from Brazil, India and Sri Lanka. One project was sold for € 11.90.
The first ACX-Climex auction was held on November 25, with a highest selling price of € 4. Since this first auction, prices have continued to rise, because there is more trust in the market in the CDM process and there is an upward pressure from the high EU Allowances price, currenty around € 30. Installations in the EU trade system can use either EU Allowances , or CERs, for compliance.Interestingly, differences in the perceived value between various CDM projects remain. This can be the type of project (energy vs waste etc.), location, the timing of the project or the 'standing price' (se below).

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Fifth on-line CER auction ACX/New Values, April 21st

Asia Carbon Exchange and New Values scheduled its 5th auction of CERs on April 21th. It is the largest offer, with nearly 9 Mton of CERs (up to 2012). The originating CDM projects are situated in India, Brazil and Sri Lanka.

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Climex welcomes joyfull East trading window Vertis Finance

In parallel with the opening of the Hungarian emissions registry, trading started on the euets.com internet-based CO2 exchange. It was launched today by Vertis Environmental Finance, the Budapest-based emissions trading firm. Euets.com is part of the Climex Alliance, providing a pan-European spot market for the trading of EU Allowances. Operators and traders from eight countries are already actively trading on the Climex platform, which is now open to operators and traders from Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, in their own language.

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CO2 price jumps like a young bull

Silence of the CO2 market is history. On the slowly increasing oil price flow, the CO2 price reaches, just like during the Katrina event, all time highs. We saw a long unexpected price of € 30,40 for current futures; 32,15 for 2008 futuresand spot prices follow closely with € 29,75. With an EU wide shortage of 180 Mton on 2.200 allocated allowances high prices were expected, but not that high so soon. And against these high oil and CO2 prices, even short term measures become beneficial. But this 2008 CO2 price test boosts fears that CERs will be kept out of the 2005-2007 window, where they were supposed to keep prices low. Nevertheless, it all depends on the CER supply to come; waiting for after Summer can be beneficial. Until than, making can be cheaper than buying. Watch your cost curve for energy and CO2 measures.

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EU Allocation Plans push bearish sentiment; Germany: 12% CER use

As said earlier (here) EU States seem willing - at least in their preliminary plans - to cut deeper in allowed emissions than in the previous allocation. This, besides increasing crude oil shortage, is pushing bearish sentiments on the carbon market, touching the time high of € 31/ton. Panic is not needed though (see here). The 2008 futures are still below €30; but there is finally backwardation: they are for the first time priced higher than 2006 contracts! . Latest signal comes from Germany where Environment Minister Gabriel appears committed to meet the Kyoto cap of a 21% cut in greenhouse emissions against the 1990 baseline. Currently emissions stand -19%. He said total allocation would be 495,5 Mton, 0,7% lower than the first phase with 499Mton (see preliminary NAP-2).
Largest cut shall be allocated to the power sector, with 15% less allowances than Nap-1. Other sectors will have allocations cut by 1.25%.

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Some test the �30 ceiling: no panic though

For the second time the € 30 ceiling has been reached. During the first time, July 2005, the fundamentals were clear: after Katrina the already high oil prices peaked for weeks. Gas prices followed and CO2 prices too. The then few active power traders and banks were used to high price levels. They felt no reason to hedge for low carbon prices.
But this time though the fundamentals are slowly climbing. Unnoticed by many, oil and gas prices are moving North with a slow pace; slowly the water reaches boiling temperatures. Some traders are testing compliance buyers now, with April 30, surrender day, coming closer. Maybe they want to reach the power fuel switch level, by many seen at €40. Volumes were limited; prices went down € 0,50 next day. And, importantly, the 2008 price didn't break the € 28 level yet. Signals for the second allocation, after 2007 are still unclear and bearish movements are not excluded, as CDM credits will be available then.

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Geen paniek als � 30-grens wordt getest

Voor de tweede keer in het bestaan van het emissiehandelssysteem is een prijs van € 30 bereikt. Het betreft '2007 futures'. De eerste keer toen dat gebeurde - juli 2005 - was duidelijk dat de al hoge olieprijs verder werd opgestuwd door Katrina. Gas-, CO2- en stroomprijzen stegen mee. Energiehandelaren en banken, de weinige actieve CO2-handelaren op dat moment, waren toen aan hoge prijzen gewend en hadden geen interesse in het beperkt houden van CO2-prijzen.
Maar deze keer verklaren de 'fundamentals' niet makkelijk de CO2-prijsstijging. De 'fundamentals' veranderen langzaam; en haast ongezien komt het water tot boven kookpunt.

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Auction for 7th April postponed

We regret to inform all that the scheduled CER auction for 7th April is postponed in respect to the passing away of Dr. Nguyen Head, Climate Change and CDM Department, Asia Carbon Vietnam (ACVN) on 6th April 2006, in Hanoi, Vietnam.

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UK, Germany, NL seem moving from upstream to downstream allocation

The recent signals in the UK, Germany and The Netherlands to move some of the CO2 emissions budget away from the power sector to the energy intensive industries as a windfall profit fix is followed close by the industry. This development implicitly means a shift in the allocation approach from an 'upstream based' (allowances for the smoke stacks/direct emitter) to a more 'downstream based' (allowances for the energy users/indirect emitter) emissions trading system. The EU had chosen for an upstream system, because that would give power companies the opportunity for fuel switch and to compete over the CO2 price. Current practice indicates nevertheless that power companies are not interested in competing on the price. Moreover, they say that switches from coal to gas will occur only with higher oil & gas prices and a CO2 price above €40/t. Linked with the problems governments and energy users have with the high electricity prices and the windfall profits power companies are assumed to have, governments are considering changing the allocation.

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EU states seem willing to sharpen second Allocation

Though signals are nor to obvious, the first signs of the allocation process for the next round show that member states seem willing to sharpen NAP-2 compared to the first one. The UK (-4%), Spain (-18%), Austria (-17%), Ireland and Slovakia have announced cuts to the allocation in order to reach their Kyoto targets. Of other states, Germany, Netherlands the situation is not clear. Though both announced to cut the allocation to power companies in favor of energy intensive industries, to overall picture is not clear. The German Environment Minister ensured coal fired power plants that they will receive the allocation they need. Also the Netherlands wants to ensure the growth of installed capacity, but did not make clear what base load is accepted. Besides, more than hundred extra sites will be included in the Dutch NAP (9 chemical plants, 100 smaller facilities 50-80 CHP heated horticulture sites). Also the Swedish NAP will include more sites. And last but not least, the UK still needs to decide whether to appeal against the Commission's disapproval of the required 20Mt NAP extension, or to compensate power companies for this loss.

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Financial sector tests new carbon products

The current relative silence and illiquidity on the carbon market is apparently used to test new financial products and to publish test trades. Spectron explained Dowjones (see Emissions Trade Watch) for example the new call and put option contracts by Spectron with underlying CERs and other products to manage CO2 price risks for the period after 2008 or to speculate on price peaks in the future. Because price expectations differ so much (see here) traders and brokers are getting appetite in these instruments. Last weeks we saw small pioneering trades for 2008-2012 EUAs (at 27€); a price forecast that is pretty at the high end though. And also an increasing volume of trades in forward CERs, whereby the price is indexed to the price of EUAs, meaning that the higher the EUA price the higher the CERs price and vice versa. This is a clever solution to link 2 commodities that will have the same compliance value anyway. Ecosecurities went a more straightforward way in offering CERs from their portfolio of CDM projects at a fixed € 12/ton.

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CO2 prices stalled: silence before the storm

CO2 prices seem stalled for quite a few weeks already (see snapshot below). Traders and industrial companies are waiting for more certainty on their emissions numbers and therefore shortage or long position numbers as the verification of 2005 emission reports is due end of March. The April month is the true-up time for companies to come within compliance and to purchase or sell. April is also the month when we will see more draft allocation plans for consultation for the second period, 2008-2012. That will give a first indication for the long/short position in the long run. So, stalled prices will probably mean silence before the April storm.

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ACX/New Values auction offers nearly 9Mton

Asia Carbon Exchange and New Values scheduled its 5th auction of CERs on April 7th. It is the largest offer, with nearly 9 Mton of CERs (up to 2012). The originating CDM projects are situated in India, Brazil and Sri Lanka.

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Spanish Climex window Sendeco2 reports first trades

Sendeco2 is reporting its first spot trades of EUAs of about 200.000 tCO2. Spot trades will be crucial for Spanish power companies that have mostly short positions to get into compliance end of April. Trades are done through the Climex Alliance platform, through which New Values, UKPX, Vertis Environmental Finance and STX Services cooperate. Sendeco2 has now 10 members; one of the larger ones is Endesa. See here for Climex trade statistics.

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CO2-Markt entspannt sich

Das Handelsblatt berichtet das der Preis für Kohlendioxid-Emissionsrechte nach Ansicht von Experten in den kommenden Monaten sinken wird. Damit dürften auch die hohen Strompreise nachgeben, weil die Versorger ihren Kunden die Verschmutzungsrechte in Rechnung stellen. „Die Fundamentaldaten des Marktes werden sich in den nächsten Monaten deutlich ändern“, sagt der geschäftsführende Direktor des Finanzdienstleisters Natsource, Paul Vickers. Denn in den kommenden Monaten dürften zusätzliche Verschmutzungszertifikate auf den Markt kommen und den Nachfrageüberhang ausgleichen.

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Next, fifth CER auction postponed

Asia Carbon and New Values are in the process of organising the next on-line ERPA/CER auction via Climex. Postponement is needed to allow for due diligence of the Clean Development Mechanism projects from which the carbon credits would be offered.
Asia Carbon is expecting offers of about 0,5 Mton CO2e through various CDM projects. More information here.

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Less correlation between CO2 and power price

The correlation between the CO2 price and the power price still of course exists, but seems to become less importrant. More and more analyses -recently CEPS - show that CO2 is only one of the drivers of the power price. Now the CO2 price seems not to increase so much - see here - the need to pass through that part seems less relevant. The power price keeps changing of course due to other market fundamentals. The European Commission anounced to discuss the relation between the energy related market and political issues (here). But already clear seems that there are no real plans to modify the ETS for power price reasons. Also our poll shows there is no straightforward answer to the issue of windfall profits (see left left).

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CO2 price reflects role of compliance

Now fossil prices seem more relaxed and the winter is nearing it's end, we see that carbon prices appear stabile at around €26 (spot), €27 (2006 futures) and € 28 (2008's). This reflects the role of compliance. Companies that need to surrender their allowances over 2005 in April know they have the option to wait for lower prices or to surrender their 2006 allowances. In that regard it is crucial the remaining 6 national registries get on-line (see here).That gives more room for supply and at the same time enables companies to get the allowances for compliance in their operator account. Traders with long positions anticipate crunch time after 2007, so they see no need to test higher levels now. On the other hand crunch time may become lunch time IF CO2 credits from developing country CDM projects (CERs) enter the EU ETS in April 2008 ultimo. So, it seems we will see a narrow window for speculation and a narrow window for lower prices. Currently, highest CERs bids are € 11.

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Last 7 Registries to be on-line April

Finally, complete compliance within the EU ETS and full liquidity is expected when the last 7 national emissions registries will get on-line in March (Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg) or by the end of April at the very latest (Cyprus, Greece, Malta, and Poland). In the mentioned 7 countries, companies cannot comply yet, nor will they have been trading. April is the last month for them to get the allowances allocated on their accounts, and surrendered for compliance.

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Credits entering the market; slowly but massive

The new Executive Board, with growing financial support for staff and meetings (US $ 8,188,050) and the recent JI Supervisory Committee give the market high expectations. When we look at the numbers, we see that credits are underway to meet the Kyoto Protocol shortage of 2,5 billion CO2 credits for the Industrialised Kyoto Parties together in 2008-2012. That is, when we assume that half of the credits to meet Kyoto will be purchased on the market. Though only 0,2 % of the credits needed, 4Mton has been issued by the CDM Executive Board, with 1.500 Mton ERUs and 800 Mton CERs somewhere in the pipeline (1300 CDM/JI projects, the supply can ultimately meet the demand in 2012. Whether this supply also meets the 2005-2007 dead-line in April 2008 is unknown. Analysts believe that 30% of the ETS shortage, 60Mton, could enter that narrow window in time. This depends on the CDM process itself and the finalisation of the linkage of the national registries with the ITL (see here).

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ITL: It's The Limit?

Most discussed issue these days at the Pointcarbo Conference was whether the International Transaction Log (ITL) will be up and running in time: (1) to be able to surrender CERs into the national registries for ETS compliance for the period 2005-2007; (2) to generate cash for early vintage CERs. The ITL enables the factual transfer of AAUs, ERUs, CERs.
In our view the ITL seems NOT a limit to ETS compliance. Though the ITL itself will be on-line as from May 2007; it needs heavy security and communication tests. The National Registries and EU registries wil be linked as from April 2008. Hence, the ITL is meant for Kyoto, which has obligations as from 2008; industrialised Kyoto Protocol Parties have to surrender their AAUs and credits for compliance in 2013! So, April 2008 is the true-up month for the 2005-2007 ETS period: better not hold the 5th Pointcarbon event than... we need a lot of CER traffic. Advice: purchase CERs now, prices wil be skyhigh by than. Of course, if it's on-line earlier, the better. But the fact that the European Commission and the UK said they don't see the need for a back-up plan, in case of ITL delay, it means they take some sort of responsability.

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CO2 �26-27, low volumes: diffuse signals on future caps

Most significant news last week was the Commissions rejection of Britain's request to emit an additional 20 Mton/a. When the Commission first rejected the request, Britain obtained a ruling from the EC's Court of Justice that Britain was entitled to revise its NAP. But the Commission has rejected it because it was submitted after the Sept. 30, 2004 deadline. The UK will go to Court again. This decision means a 10% EUA shortage increase from 160 to 180 Mton for 2005-2007. Why did the CO2 price not increase but remain €26-27 and trade volumes were limited? Did traders really calculate this crunch in?

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26 - 27 �/t, niedriges Handelsvolumen: Unklare Signale �ber k�nftige Emissionsgrenzen

Die wichtigste Nachricht der letzten Woche im Emissionshandel war die Ablehnung der britischen Forderung, 20 mio. t/a zusätzlich zu emittieren, durch die EU-Kommission. Als die Kommission den Antrag zum ersten Mal ablehnte, erreichte Großbritannien vor dem Europäischen Gerichtshof ein Urteil, dass ihm die Überarbeitung des NAP gestattete. Aber die Kommission lehnte diese erneut ab, weil sie nach dem Stichtag 30. September 2004 zugegangen sei. Die britische Regierung wird dagegen erneut klagen. Diese Entscheidung bedeutet eine 10%ige Zunahme des Mangels an Emissionsberechtigungen, von 160 auf 180 mio. t, für die Periode 2005-2007. Warum stieg dann der CO2-Preis nicht an, sondern blieb bei 26 - 27 €/t, und warum war das Handelsvolumen so gering? Hatten die Händler diese Kürzung wirklich bereits eingepreist?

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4. CER-Auktion: Deutliche Preisverbesserung

Rund 500,000 t CER-Forwards waren während der CER-Auktion am Donnerstag letzter Woche (16. Februar) im Angebot, die von Asia Carbon Exchange und Climex abgehalten wurden. Es wurden 5 CDM-Projekte aus 3 Ländern und 2 Kontinenten angeboten (Indien, Vietnam und Brasilien). Die Preisgebote reichten von 5,05 €/t bis 11,75 €/t CO2, abhängig von den Projektdetails. Insgesamt wurden in fünf Transaktionen 180.000 t verkauft (siehe die Pressemitteilung). Die nächste Auktion wird am 17. März 2006 stattfinden. Informationen: Sascha Bloemhoff, CER-Auktionmanagerin von New Values: +31 (30) 2919940; Fax: +31 (30) 2919833; Email: sascha.bloemhoff@newvalues.net.

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CO2-prijs stabiel � 26-27, bij onduidelijke politieke signalen

Belangrijkste wapenfeit was deze week het besluit van de Europese Commissie de verhoging van de Britste allocatie met 20Mton toch niet toe te staan. Men gaf als reden dat het amendement na de dead-line, 20 sept 2004, was bekend gemaakt. Dus niet omdat de hercalculatie o.g.v. prognoses van de energie-emissies niet zou kloppen. In principe wordt de schaarste van emissierechten in de EU hierdoor met 10% beperkt van 180 naar 160Mton. Toch liep de prijs hierdoor niet op en bleef de prijs van emissierechten voor 2008 iets hoger dan die van 2006 en 2007 (boven €27), al is het verschil nihil. De gasprijs verlaagde iets, wat gunstig voor de CO2-balans is. De spotprijs blijft achter (beneden €27), wat de markt nog steeds een onvolwasen karakter geeft: boter bij de vis zou toch beloond moeten worden.

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4th CER auction: significant price improvement

Around 500,000 tonnes of forward CERs were on offer during the CER auction last Thursday 16 February held by Asia Carbon Exchange and Climex There were5 CDM projects offered, originating from 3 countries on 2 continents (India, Vietnam and Brazil). Bid prices went from € 5.05 to € 11.75/tCO2 depending on the project details. A total of 180,000 tons were sold over five transactions (see press release). The next auction will be held on March 17 2006. Information: Sascha Bloemhoff, CER auctions manager New Values: +31 (0)30 2919940; Fax: +31 (0)30 2919833; Email: sascha.bloemhoff@newvalues.net .

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Groter tekort CO2-emissierechten in 2007; druk op CDM

Een nieuw rapport van Markedskraft, gebaseerd op een nieuw CO2-prijs prognosemodel waarschuwt energiebedrijven en EU-regeringen voor een dreigend groter tekort in 2007 aan emissierechten. Achtergrond hiervan is de grotere droogte in de Alpen, Spanje en Scandinavie, waardoor daar minder waterkracht opgewekt kan worden.
Als dat vervangen wordt door stroomopwekking door kolen, komt dat op 36Mton CO2-uitstoot extra. Het totale tekort aan emissierechten kan in 2007 oplopen tot 174 tot 220 Mton. Dit is afhankelijk van eventuele extra investeringen door bedrijven, de aanwezigheid van CDM-credits (CERs) en aanpassingen aan het Allocatieplan. Overmacht is wellicht een reden de allocaties aan te passen; de Europese Commissie zal dit niet snel toestaan.
De waarschuwing van Markedskraft staat haaks op de recente analyse van UBS aan hun klienten. Deze stelt hierin dat als de Europese Commissie op 15 mei 2006 de geverifieerde emissiecijfers publiceert van de 11.000 installaties die onder emissiehandel vallen, en er uit blijkt dat het tekort kleiner is dan gedacht de markt en prijs wel eens in zou kunnen zakken.

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President Bush's proposed budget actually CUTS clean funds

While Mr. Bush talked about alternative fuels, hybrid cars etc. in the speech, his budget actually cuts spending for R&D on renewable energy, while maintaining the tax credits that stimulate the oil industry. And he keeps being opposed to proposed legislation to improve vehicle fuel economy.

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Markt kijkt wat meer naar toekomst; nog steeds grote volatiliteit

Een interessante, onverwachte ontwikkeling deed zich afgelopen week voor op de emissiemarkt. Voor het eerst bleken bedrijven bereid voor de emissierechten die voor de tweede allocatieperiode (2008-2012) worden uitgegeven meer over te hebben - € 27,60 - dan de emissierechten in deze periode - € 26 -. Lange tijd was dit niet het geval. De CO2-markt liet backwardation zien, lagere prijzen in de toekomst; voor het eerst zien we als gebruikelijkcontango . Hoe komt dit?

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New Values Masterclass befasst sich mit CER-Auslieferungsrisiken

Am 9. Februar organisierte New Values die zweite Masterclass zum Emissionshandel für Mitglieder und interessierte Unternehmen in Frankfurt. Der Geschäftsführer von Asia Carbon, Vinod Kesava, zeigte dem Plenum, dass Zertifikate aus CDM-Projekten zu Preisen zwischen 6,20 € und 9,20 €/t versteigert wurden. Daraus ergab sich die Frage, ob dies bedeutet, dass das Auslieferungsrisiko bei 30% liege; demzufolge wäre der Preis 30% niedriger als für EU-Emissionsberechtigungen. Es herrschte Einigkeit, dass es sich eher um eine Risikoeinschätzung handelte und nicht zwangsläufig um das tatsächliche Risiko. Vinod zeigte auch, dass der Preis für CER price bereits höher liegt als vor der Ratifizierung des Kyoto-Protokolls durch Russland und vor dem Klimagipfel in Montreal, der dem CDM den Rücken stärkte.

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New Values Masterclass discussed perceived CER delivery risk

Febr.9 New Values organised the 2nd Masterclass Emissions Trading for members and interested companies in Frankfurt. Asia Carbon COO Vinod Kesava, showed the audience that auctioned CDM projects were sold at € 6.20 - 9.20/ton. This brought the audience to the question whether this meand that the delivery risk is to be regarded as 30%; hence the price is 30% lower than oEUAs. It was then agred that is more a perceived risk, not necessarily in practice. Vinod showed that the CER price is already higher than before Russia ratified the Kyoto Protocol and before the Climate Summit in Montreal that strengthenend the basis of the CDM.

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Emissierechten niet langer verleend als een bedrijf sluit

De regering heeft medio januari een eerste consultatiepaper opgesteld t.b.v. de allocatie van emissierechten in de volgende periode (2008-2012, NAP-2). Daar wil ze begin februari een eerste reactie op van brancheorganisaties, alsvorens de inspraak over de toewijzing van de rechten begint. In juni moet NAP-2 bij de Europese Commisie worden ingediend.
Uit het paper blijkt dat een aantal zaken vastligt, waaronder dat er een sluitings- en transferregeling, komt, dwz dat rechten niet langer verleend zullen worden als een bedrijf sluit en dat rechten overgedragen kunnen worden ingeval van sluiting van een vestiging, terwijl een andere vestiging de productie overneemt.

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Emissiemarkt laat mooie CO2-prijzen en volumes zien; maar wat zien we eigenlijk?

Als we een snapshot van de emissiemarkt nemen, zien we mooie prijzen (zie hieronder) en volumes (63 Mton alleen al in januari!), meegolvend met de wintertemperaturen en gasprijzen. Een technische analyse zou laat een emissieprijs hoger dan de historische € 30 laten zien. Maar wat zien we eigenlijk? De CO2-markt is niet alleen een 'compliance markt'; bedrijven moeten in april 2006 de emissierechten inleveren om de jaaremissies van 2005 af te dekken. Maar de dagelijks, meer dan 2 Mton verhandelde ton aan emissierechten komt ook van speculeren en daghandel: de prijsschommelingen en de -intra-day-verschillen geven daar gelegenheid toe.
Maar daar komt wellicht een eind aan na 2008. Het plaatje laat lager geplaatste emissierechten-futures voor 2008 en 2010 zien, al verschillen prijsverwachtingen nogal (zie hier). En de instroom van CERs en ERUs van de Kyoto projecten, alsmede van emissierechten uit Rusland en de Ukraine is onbekend: en die hebben een neerwaarts effect op de marktprijs.

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Direct clearing through LCH.Clearnet clearing improves market transparency

The announcement of LCH.Clearnet that it will allow direct clearing by its clearing members will in our view improve the transparency of the emissions market.
Until now every party that favours clearing OTC EUA trades via LCH.Clearnet could only do that by registering the transaction the next day through the ECX as exchange for physicals (EFP), as the ECX platform led to the deal. The day after the transaction the cleared trade was shown as current transaction with the ECX expiry date, without showing that fact and without showing that the price was settled the other day. Moreover, ECX was including the OTC trade in their totals. We feel that now parties have the choice to seek direct clearing increases market transparency; because trades and prices are registered as they are. Apart from this, the parties will save one payment; but that is an advantage Climex offers with spot trade too.

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Neue CO2-Handelseinheit ERU r�ckt n�her

Ein UN-Klimaschutztreffen in Bonn am 2. und 3. Februar markiert den Start für eine neue Handelseinheit für CO2: die ERUs. "Emissions Reductions Units" (ERUs) sind mit den CERs von CDM-Projekten vergleichbar. Allerdings werden ERUs erst ab 2008 und nur aus CO2-Minderungsprojekten in einem anderen Industrieland erzeugt. Das Treffen in Bonn soll den Weg für hunderte von Projekten in Russland und Osteuropa ebnen. Russland und die Ukraine haben das größte Projektpotential, müssen jedoch noch ihre nationalen gesetzlichen Regelungen für die Anerkennung der Projekte und die Ausgabe von ERUs auf den Weg bringen.

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New Carbon Commodity coming closer: ERUs

A UN Climate Change meeting in Bonn, Febr. 2-3 marks the start of a new carbon market commodity: the ERU. Emissions Reductions Units (ERUs) can be compared with the CERs in CDM projects. But ERUs generate as from 2008 from CO2 reduction projects in another industrial country. The meeting in Bonn is set to pave the way for hundreds of projects in Russia and eastern Europe. Russia and Ukraine have the biggest potential but they still have to sort out their domestic, legal systems for approving projects and issuance of ERUs.

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CO2-Preisprognosen zeigen gro�e Varianz

Im Januar sahen wir verschiedene Prognosen für den CO2-Preis, die stark differierten. Sie reichen von 15 € bis 52 € für das Jahr 2007, und von 23 € bis 50 € für 2010. Die verschiedenen Schätzungen beruhen auf unterschiedlichen Annahmen für die Entwicklung der Gas- und Kohlepreise, der Allokation, der Verfügbarkeit von Emissionszertifikatne und der Marktliquidität. Marktteilnehmer, die primär an der Erfüllung ihrer Emissionsziele interessiert sind, können Vorteile aus einer Verschiebung möglicher Käufe ziehen, und in Zukunft zu geringeren Preisen kaufen. Verkäufer könnten andererseits früher zu Geld kommen, wenn sie früher verkaufen. Wir beobachten, dass Analysten versuchen, die Unternehmen für eine proaktive Strategie zu gewinnen. Dennoch empfehlen wir dringend, dass jedes Unternehmen sich zunächst über seine CO2-Handelsstrategie klarwerden sollte.

(von Jos Cozijnsen)

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CO2 Price Prognosis vary a lot

January saw several CO2 price predictions that vary a lot. They go from €15 to €52 for 2007; and from €23 to €50 for 2010. They depend on the different assumptions for gas and coal price, allocation, supply and liquidity. Harder to detect is the timing and size of CER availability. There are advantages for compliance participants to delay purchases. and to wait for lower prices. And there are advantages for companies to cash sooner. We see analysts trying to stimulate companies to be pro-active. But we feel that any company should at least make up its carbon strategy.

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Rising clean dark spreads: real or emotional?

Analysts say that the clean dark spread is currently rising again. The clean or carbon adjusted dark spead - which is the profit from electricity generation minus production and CO2 cost - compared to clean spark spread (that is gas fired power) makes is still more beneficial to burn coal. They say that at a CO2 price of around € 40/ton, switching from coal to gas becomes profitable.
But with many power plants are already at maximum coal loads at the moment, utilities will not be able to switch easily, and spread numbers have only an emotional value. It is getting time for the industrial market participants to implement CO2 reducing projects. Studies show that ample cross-sector reductions are available between €5 to €20/ton. Many hope that in April 2008 the International Transaction Log will be connected with the EU Log, CITL and national registries, in order to transfer Kyoto credits, so that companies can comply with CERs.
A threat comes closer as Tim van Noord from STX Services warns: "But if the EU will be short in April 2008, and if fuel switching is practically impossible and if the ITL is not operational yet, where will companies be able to purchase their short positions? Will company’s stop production?"
If Tims concerns come true and companies may not be able to comply after submitting the 2007 emissions report, it is crucial that companies have set their strategies in time, to prevent the €40 penalty on top of the obligation to surrender enough allowances later.

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10 Mton CO2 traded in 1 day: speculation and cold is in the air: will power companies keep their heads cool?

Last week we noted that trades criticized industrial traders for dumping large volumes of spot contracts (see here). January 19th showed that banks are joining in. At that day only, 10Mton was traded and ABN AMRO reported a single spot transfer of 3,3 Mton. The selling company will be able to purchase the slot back, making profits or not. But in the mean time with a €25/ton price the company has more that € 80 million in hands, and ABN AMRO can make more spread deals. And it seems a winter price spurt is at hand with cold and gas "pressure" coming from the East.
What does this mean for CO2 Policy?

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10 mio. gehandelte t CO2 an einem Tag - Spekulation und K�lte h�ngen in der Luft: Bewahren die Energiekonzerne einen k�hlen Kopf?

Letzte Woche stellten wir fest, dass der Preis nachgab, weil industrielle Händler große Mengen an Spot-Kontrakten auf den Markt warfen (siehe hier). Am 19. Januar konnten wir erleben, dass die Banken sich endgültig einmischen. Allein an diesem Tag wurden 10 mio. t gehandelt, und ABN AMRO meldete die bislang größte einzelne Spot-Transaktion mit 3,3 mio. t. Der Verkäufer wird die Menge zurückkaufen können, mit oder ohne Gewinn. Doch in der Zwischenzeit hat das Unternehmen bei einem Preis von 25 €/t mehr als 80 mio. € in der Hand, und ABN AMRO kann weitere Transaktionen mit Handelsgewinn einfädeln. Es scheint also, dass ein winterlicher Preiswettlauf ansteht, zumal angesichts der Kälte und des Drucks auf die Gasversorgung aus dem Osten.

Was bedeutet dies für die CO2-Politik?

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10 Mton CO2-handel op 1 dag: speculatie en kou in de lucht.

Vorige week schreven we dat de energiehandel de markt-deelnemers van de industrie verweten hun van 2005 overgebleven emissierechten massaal via spothandel te dumpen. Op 19 januari bleek dat banken daar graag aan meedoen. ABN-AMRO heeft - schrijft Pointcarbon vandaag - van een industriele klant meer dan 3 miljoen ton rechten gekocht, om deze later - wellicht in april als de emissierechten aan de autoriteiten moeten worden overgedragen - aan dat bedrijf terug te verkopen. Misschien heeft de bank winst, misschien het bedrijf. Gedurende een paar maanden zit het bedrijf ruimer in het kapitaal, een ruime € 80 miljoen met een marktprijs van €25. En de bank kan met de rechten handelen. Op 19 januari werd totaal 10 miljoen ton verhandeld; de tweederde via handelaren. Die week werd totaal 20 miljoen ton aan emissierechten verhandeld; drie keer zoveel als gebruikelijk!
De link met CO2-beleid? Het heeft niet veel met CO2-beleid te maken maar het geeft wel aan dat de CO2-markt volwassen aan het worden is, dat er vertrouwen in partijen, regels en toezicht is, gezien de waarde die partijen er aan geven.

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Kartellamt baut Strompreisuntersuchung zu umfassender Marktstudie aus

Das Bundeskartellamt scheint im Verfahren um überhöhte Strompreise aufgrund des Emissionshandels auf der Suche nach gerichtsfesten Hinweisen zu sein. Der Präsident des Kartellamts, Ulf Böge, sagte Dow Jones Newswires am Dienstag, es sei eine umfassende Markterfassung zum Thema CO2-Zertifikate geplant. Eine Entscheidung sei derzeit daher noch nicht absehbar.

Siehe FAZ Online.

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Erfolg der Online-CER-Auktionen setzt sich fort; Handelsmengen und Preise haben weiter Auftrieb

Asia Carbon Exchange (ACX-Change) und New Values (Climex) haben ihre dritte Online-Auktion für CER-Forwardkontrakte aus CDM-Projekten durchgeführt. Eine Gesamtmenge von 890.000 t CERs wurden am 13. Januar verkauft, mithin ein Mengenzuwachs von 30% gegenüber der zweiten Auktion. Die zweite Auktion verzeichnete bereits einen Zuwachs von 400% gegenüber der ersten. Die Verkaufspreise lagen zwischen 6,20 €/t und 9,20 €/t. Alle Projekte werden in Indien umgesetzt.

Siehe die Pressemitteilung.

Die Preisunterschiede spiegeln inbesondere den Entwicklungsstand der Projekte sowie die Risikoaufteilung zwischen Käufer und Verkäufer wider. Darüber hinaus überstieg das Angebot die Nachfrage auf der Handelsplattform; es wurden insgesamt 3 mio. t CERs zum Verkauf angeboten.
Die nächste Auktion findet am 16. Februar statt, dem ersten Jahrestag des Inkrafttretens des Kyoto-Protokolls.

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Success of on-line CER auction continues; Volumes and Prices continue to surge ahead

Asia Carbon Exchange (ACX-Change) and New Values (Climex) ran their third on-line auction for forward CER contracts arising from CDM projects. A total of 890.000 tons of CERs were sold on Januari 13th, meaning a 30% increase in volume, compared to the second auction. The second auction was already an improvement of 400% from the initial auction. The transaction prices varied from €6.20 to 9.20/ton; all of the projects wil be implemented in India.
See Press release

The price variation reflects the stage of development of the projects and the apportionment of risk between buyer and seller. Besides, supply did outweigh demand on the exchange; there was 3 Mton of CERs on offer.
The next auction will be held on 16 February, the first anniversary of the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol.

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Spread zwischen Spots und Futures weitet sich wieder; 2008er weiterhin schwach

Der Markt zeigt eine Öffnung der Preisdifferenz zwischen Spot- und Future-Verträgen von -0,60 € auf 1,00 €. Als Grund dafür gilt, dass neue Marktteilnehmer Emissionsberechtigungen im Spot-Handel in größeren Mengen anbieten. Beleg dafür ist auf der derzeitige Erfolg von Spot-Handelsangeboten und die hohen Transfermengen zwischen den Emissionshandelsregistern in ganz Europa. Händler geben weiterhin Future-Kontrakten den Vorzug, da ihnen die hier gezeigte Forward-Preiskurve attraktiv erscheint - zumindest bis 2008. 2008er-Verträge sind weiterhin unterbewertet. Die Empfehlungen der Kommission zum NAP-2 hatten darauf bislang keinen großen Einfluss.

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Preise f�r Erdgas, Strom und CO2 - wohin geht die Reise?

Russland zwingt die Ukraine in die Knie und erreicht eine Verdoppelung des Gaspreises. Problem der Ukraine: Fehlende Verhandlungsmacht aufgrund ihrer energetischen Abhängigkeit von Russland.

Gleichzeitig baut ein deutsch-russisches Konsortium eine direkte Gaspipeline durch die Ostsee, da Deutschland sein Klimaschutzziel nur mit viel (russischem) Erdgas erreichen kann. Fuel-Switch von Kohle zu Gas lautet die Zauberformel.
Dabei gilt: Gaspreis hoch = wenig Fuel-Switch => CO2-Preis hoch.

Weiterhin ist der Gaspreis ist an den Ölpreis gekoppelt, und der wird nach Ansicht der meisten Experten neue Rekordhöhen erreichen (siehe mein Beitrag vom 29.12.2005).

Dank der Energiepolitik der letzten Wirtschaftsminister liegt die Gas- und Stromversorgung in Deutschland in der Hand ein- und derselben Konzerne. Gegen deren Strombereiche ermittelt das Bundeskartellamt wegen des Verdachts, sich ungerechtfertigt mit Hilfe des Emissionshandels zu bereichern (vgl. Süddeutsche Zeitung vom 12.1.2006 und FAZ).

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De Haan (ECX) en Rietdijk (Climex): 'CO2-prijzen zullen zich stabiliseren op huidig niveau'

CO2 -prijsstijging blijft beperkt (FD 12 jan)
De aankondiging van de Europese Commissie dat de uitstoot van CO2 verder omlaag moet, heeft niet geleid tot een spectaculaire stijging van de CO2 -prijzen. Volgens Albert de Haan, directeur van de emissiehandelsbeurs ECX (European Climate Exchange), en Tames Rietdijk, Chief Technology Officer van concurrent Climex, komt dat omdat ook de mogelijkheden worden verruimd voor zowel bedrijven als overheden om buiten de EU projecten uit te voeren waarmee de uitstoot van broeikasgassen wordt teruggedrongen. De 'credits' die daarmee worden verdiend, mogen bedrijven meetellen bij hun eigen verplichtingen. Overheden kunnen de credits gebruiken om de normen voor hun nationale industrie te verlichten. De Haan en Rietdijk verwachten wel dat als gevolg van de strenge Brusselse aanpak de CO2 -prijzen zich zullen stabiliseren op het huidige, vrij hoge niveau.

Dat komt overeen met de verwachting van Merryl Lynch, die in haar rapport 'Electric Utilities: 2006 Trends' uitgaat van een gemiddelde prijs van €24 in 2006 en € 23 in 2007. Het kan hoger uitkomen als olieprijzen sterk stijgen en lager als Rusland aan de CO2-markt gaat deelnemen.

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Spread between spot and futures widening again; 2008 contract still lagging

The market shows a widening again of the spead between de prices for spot contracts and futures contracts at -€0.60 to €1. As reason for this it is said that companies, that just entered the market offer spot allowances with high volumes. This also shows the current success of spot trades and the transfers between more Emissions Registries on-line across Europe. Traders say they have still a preference for the futures contracts, because they like the forwards curve showed there; at least up to 2008. 2008 contracts still go against lower prices. The NAP-2 guidance didn't have much influence on that.

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New Values nodigt u uit voor de Tweede Masterclass, 9 februari

We denken dat het een goed moment is om het eerste jaar van de CO2-emissiehandel te evalueren en na te gaan welke lessen daaruit kunnen worden geleerd. En natuurlijk willen we de recente o